It is a projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. The Quantitative Fair Value Estimate is calculated daily. The Quantitative Fair Value Estimate is based on a statistical model derived from the Fair Value Estimate Morningstar’s equity analysts assign to companies which includes a financial forecast of the company. Quantitative Fair Value Estimate represents Morningstar’s estimate of the per share dollar amount that a company’s equity is worth today. For detail information about the Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks, please visit here Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in future and is no indication of future performance. Investments in securities are subject to market and other risks. If our base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on our fair value estimate over time, generally within three years. A 5-star represents a belief that the stock is a good value at its current price a 1-star stock isn't. This process culminates in a single-point star rating that is updated daily.
Four components drive the Star Rating: (1) our assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate of the stock’s fair value, (3) our uncertainty around that fair value estimate and (4) the current market price. Morningstar assigns star ratings based on an analyst’s estimate of a stock's fair value. It is projection/opinion and not a statement of fact. The Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks is assigned based on an analyst's estimate of a stocks fair value. For detail information about the Qualitative Fair Value, please click here.
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Because we are modeling free cash flow to the firm-representing cash available to provide a return to all capital providers-we discount future cash flows using the weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred stock (and any other funding sources), using expected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights. Combining analysts’ financial forecasts with the firm’s economic moat helps us assess how long returns on invested capital are likely to exceed the firm’s cost of capital. Scenario analysis, in-depth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools are used to augment the discounted cash flow process. Analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into a proprietary discounted cash flow modeling template. Fair Value is derived from a detailed projection of a company’s future cash flows.
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